The fairy-tale of calculating lotto numbers

clover Sorry for writing about lotto again, I’m kinda annoyed by that topic too, but since there are people who believe that future lotto drawings could be calculated – like one here in the comments (in German), who kindly provided some details when I asked him by e-mail, thanks a lot – I consider it quite appropriate to go into that.

So this is Mr Galluzzo’s comment, translated by me:

So if you make it more precisely, you would have to give away many details, and who gives anything away would be quite stupid.
You can only learn something if you’re playing yourself.

You don’t have to play lotto in order to look at the numbers, and you can learn without spending money on false hopes, too.

:dunce: One could also learn by e.g. attending a course or buying/renting a book about “Probability calculation for beginners.” Isn’t there one in the “for dummies” series (whose title is never intended to offend…)?

I think that you are no player, if you were a player with experience, you wouldn’t write such stupid stuff, I already said that.

Oh, yes, the biiig secrets and experiences of “experts”, yeah, sure. As if that would change anything about no lotto drawing depending of the preceding drawings.

Now into more details:

But a tip to a precise file(?) to think about, especially for laymen writing silly things.

Take the last two years of the lotto statistics, look closely, what do we see? At 92% numbers are drawn who start below ten, that is 1-9, do you understand that?? If not, look at the 2007 statistics, I hope you hit on it.

(His German is sometimes hard to understand…)

The point is, I think, how often there’s a single-digit number (1-9) among the 6 drawn numbers (or all 7 including the additional number (“Zusatzzahl”, ZZ). Alright, let’s have a closer look at that – for this year, the last 2 years, and all drawings since the unification of Wednesday and Saturday lotto:

Period: 3.1.2007 – 24.11.2007 26.11.2005 – 24.11.2007 2.12.2000 – 24.11.2007 expected
Number of drawings: 94 209 729  
one of the 6 numbers below 10: 70x = 74.5% 156x = 74.6% 541x = 74.2% 72.6%
the additional number (ZZ) below 10: 17x = 18.1% 49x = 23.4% 136x = 18.7% *
one of the 6 or the ZZ below 10: ** 76x = 80.9% 173x = 82.8% 582x = 79.8% 78.3%
** For this, you must NOT add the two values above, because both can occur at the same time! (Is that how you reached your 92%?)
added, it would be: 92.6% 98.0% 92.9%
then erroneously counted twice: 11x 32x 95x

* didn’t calculate that

Lotto fairy - photo from lotto-bw.de/presse The expected value – the calculated statistic probability – for “one of the 6 numbers below 10” is exactly 1 − 40/49 x 39/48 x 38/47 x 37/46 x 36/45 x 35/44, for “one of the 6 or the ZZ below 10”, the factor 34/43 is also included.

The next drawn small number below ten can easily be determined

Oh, sure. The drawing machine does that really easily. :bigsmile:

just like series, that is the 1 rarely appears once, most of the time it’s drawn twice in a row.

Oh, the 1 “most of the time” appears in two consecutive drawings?

Period: 3.1.2007 – 24.11.2007 26.11.2005 – 24.11.2007 2.12.2000 – 24.11.2007 expected
Number of drawings: 94 209 729  
one of the 6 numbers is the 1: 12x = 12.8% 29x = 13.9% 96x = 13.2% 12.2%
one of the 6 or the ZZ is the 1: 16x = 17.0% 37x = 17.7% 120x = 16.5% 14.3%
in two consecutive drawings (6 numbers): 2x = 2.1% 5x = 2.4% 15x = 2.1% 1.5%
in two consecutive drawings (6 or ZZ): 3x = 3.2% 6x = 2.9% 23x = 3.2% 2.0%

I wouldn’t call that “most of the time”. And hey, the fact that it occurs a little more often than statistically expecting doesn’z say anything. We’re talking about a maximum of only a few hundred experiments, so these little “outliers” can occur quite easily!

Lotto fairy - photo from lotto-bw.de/presse And it does not mean at all that this gives you a basis for “pre-calculating” the next independent(!) experiment!

(Notice: I can’t be 100% certain that, despite all efforts and multiple verification, my little analysis program is without any error. Nobody could. But the numbers are freely available (e.g. at Lotto Bayern at the current numbers, then bottom of page), so anyone who wants can analyse then on their own…)

Back to our “expert”:

So you already have one number that will be drawn the next week and you take that as a base number.

:loll: If you’re so certain about that: Aren’t you a multiple lotto millionaire already?

I won’t give away or teach more details, it’s always about much money and not about writing stupid things.

The gentle reader should already have noticed who is writing stupid things here. I only hope that it’s just your own money that you’re spending on such “calculations” and the lotto fees and not the money that would be better used for, say, your family, if you got one.

But :lalala: I’ll fall on deaf ears with “professional players” like this one, no matter how much I write.

Bart Simpson writing "Lotto numbers cannot be predicted or calculated."
(Originally created at Add Letters, then adapted in size.)

17 Comments

  1. S

    Als ob man bei Lotto rechnen muss. einfach Geld ausgeben und dann die Ziehung verpennen,das ist die richtige einstellung.

    Ich habe heute mal alte Scheine überprüfen lassen,da waren sogar 2,50€ gewinn bei.

    :mrgreen:

  2. c

    Sei froh, dass es nicht mehr war – das wär dann mehr Grund zum Ärgern gewesen als aktuell bei den zehn superzahllosen 6er-Gewinnern. :mrgreen:

  3. S

    Soviel hatten diesmal 5 richtige ? Als ich heute morgen da war wurde mir gesagt, das die meinen Schein noch nicht nachprüfen können, als gehe ich morgen nochmal hin.

    6 Richtige ohne Superzahl, das ist ärgerlich.

    So kanpp dran und dann “nur” ein paar tausender gewonnen.

    Aber je mehr mitmachen umso eher können mehrere Mitspieler die gleichen Zahlen haben und wenn die dann gezogen werden muß der Gewinn geteilt werden, jedenfalls wenn ich das System richtig verstehe.

  4. c

    “6 Richtige” meinst du im 1. Satz wohl – dafür gab’s je 606.248,90 € (10 Gewinner), 5+Zusatzzahl hatten 70 Leute (siehe z.B. lotto.de).

    Wenn sich die Leute alle absprächen, könnten sie alle verschiedene Tips abgeben, die alle 139.838.160 Möglichkeiten abdecken… :mrgreen:

  5. S

    Genau 6 meinte ichj und nicht 5.

    Hmm 600.000 € sind auch ne Menge Geld,reicht aber nicht umbedingt um mit der Arbeit aufzuhören.

    Ich rechne nun hier nicht nach, ob die alle Tipps abdecken könnten, da glaube ich hier einfach mal.

  6. M

    Ich persönlich finde beim deutschen Lotto diese Superzahl extrem ärgerlich. Um seine Chancen nicht unnötig zu senken, müsste man ja immer 10 Scheine mit allen 10 möglichen Superzahlen ausfüllen… pfff

  7. c

    …was genau der “Experten-Tip” ist, den ich (bei Spiegel Online, denke ich) gelesen habe… genau, pfff.

    Wenn am Samstag rund 151 Millionen Euro eingesetzt wurden (wie vielerorts zu lesen ist), reicht das bei 75 Cent pro Spiel locker für mehr als 140 Millionen Tips. Und für Mittwoch erwarten sie wohl noch eine Steigerung von 25%…

  8. M

    Das war ein “Experten”-Tipp? Darf ich mich nun Lotto-Experte schimpfen? ::D:

  9. j

    i want to know how to calculate lotto number

  10. c

    You CAN’T. Didn’t you get that?

  11. M

    Can u exlpain why?

  12. c

    Du hast wohl nur drauf gewartet, bis ich dem antworte, hm? :mrgreen:

  13. M

    I don’t know?

    ::D:

  14. S

    U can geht it if u really want :mrgreen:

    Wie sind denn die Lottozahlen von nächsten Samstag ?
    Wenn ich die Antwort wüsste würde ich nimmer bloggen und arbeiten sondern irgendwo mit einem Cocktail sitzen.

    Manchmal kommen die Leute echt auf komische Fragen.

  15. v

    last week in india supper lotto result is 1 30 33 38 43 47 these six numbers are come guide me what number is come now

  16. india supper lotto no.s :- last week 1 30 33 38 43 47 no.s are display now which no.s come ? ? ? ? ? ?

  17. c

    You apparently didn’t get the message of my posts, so better join Bart Simpson at the board: :)

    LOTTO NUMBERS CANNOT BE PREDICTED OR CALCULATED.

    Nobody can tell you which lotto numbers will really come in the future.

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